March 11
CAA Semis
In the Battle of the Pats, Towson has presented CoC with some unique issues due to its physicality at the rim and in blowing up Kelsey’s eye-pleasing offensive concepts. As is typical in Charleston games, both meetings were defined by 3-point variance, with Towson shooting a season-best 10/19 from three in an upset win at Charleston (made 9/14 “guarded” threes, per SQ) and the Cougs returning the favor in Baltimore with a blowtorch 15/22 performance in late February (per SQ, CoC drilled all seven of its “unguarded” threes). In both meetings, Charleston’s drop-y defense forced Towson into an above-average mid-range rate — an area the Tigers are especially inefficient (0.71 expected PPP on mid-range attempts). Towson desperately needs to supplement its first-shot wonkiness by crushing the offensive glass, but the Cougs do an excellent job there. Good X’s and O’s matchup with too much volatility for me to play either side, though I’d have some tepid interest in the under if it steams up to a certain point.
Battle of Long Island relocates south to DC. The market is clearly adjusting for Stony Brook’s marathon 2OT game late last night as the analytical projections all sit in the 4-5 point range, and the Seawolves closed 7.5-point dogs last month in Hempstead (currently sitting 7/7.5 here on a neutral). Both teams are heavily-leveraged upon tough shot making, with Stony Brook particularly susceptible to off-shooting nights due to the 7th-highest mid-range frequency rate and (unsurprising) 359th rank in SQ’s shot selection metric while generating very little in the “extras.” SBU led by double-digits in the second half in Hempstead before a late Hofstra rally, though SQ scored it a convincing 14-point expected Hofstra win (Pride forced SBU into a wild 20% ISO rate in that game; national average is around 6%) as SBU made tough shot after tough shot. As we saw with Monmouth last night, it’s difficult to make a living in the tournament setting with such inefficient shot selection. Lean Hofstra, but not actionable for me at current price.
Horizon Semis
Cleveland State Ewing Theory’ed its way to an upset road win at YSU after Enaruna was announced out 20 minutes prior to tip-off. As always, there is no mathematical explanation for this otherworldly phenomenon, but anecdotally, I promise you that fading the late injury steam this season when the best player is announced out has been quite +EV. Of course, all Ewing voodoo no longer applies after the first game, and his status tonight remains unclear. CSU desperately needs him in the lineup tonight at both ends, as his playmaking ability and glass-crashing is of paramount importance against the Oakland zone, and he’s the most versatile frontcourt defender versus Oakland’s bevy of ISO/post-up sets. CSU won the first meeting at home in late December when it jumped out to a 38-15 lead thanks to torrid 3PT shooting (CSU 12/24; OAK 5/25) but struggled to finish at the rim against the condensed Oakland zone (9/24 at the rim). Oakland returned the favor in the rematch despite not being able to get into any of its post-up actions (3% post rate; season average is 12%) and crushed CSU on the glass. Current 5/5.5 line suggests the market is in a holding pattern on Enaruna — if he’s in, it likely closes around 4; if he’s out, it’ll close 6/6.5.
SOCON Championship
Another line adjusted to account for presumed fatigue on one side. ETSU closed +6 at home and +11 at Samford. Plenty of similarities here with last season’s SOCON title game in which 7 seed Chattanooga was playing its fourth game in four nights and meeting the top seed in the championship. The difference, of course, is that ‘Nooga closed +3.5 in that game, while ETSU is catching double-digits. FWIW, SQ scored both Samford wins in this series as expected narrow losses with ETSU handedly winning the glass in both games, though neither Achor nor Staton-McCray played in the late February matchup at Samford. The Bucs have a major size advantage in the backcourt against Jones and Graziani. Bucky zoned ETSU at identical 38% clips in both games, and we should expect more of the same time with ETSU on tired legs. I’d also expect Bucky to crank up the pressure to max volume to exploit ETSU’s circumstances. Long story short, this number is probably inflated….but Samford’s explosiveness and “Kill Shot” DNA does create significant blowout risk if ETSU gets down early and doesn’t have enough juice to fight back uphill for the second straight night.