Miscellaneous Notes from Exhibitions

Combing through the weeds for scraps of intel

No need for a belabored intro. This will not be organized or well-written.

Arkansas State: ASU buried 18/36 from three in a 112-77 rout over Central Arkansas on Monday night. UCA’s defense is perennially atrocious, but the real takeaway here is that Hodgson Boys are all-in on Oats Ball. Of ASU’s 79 FG attempts, 36 were from three and 34 were at the rim; that’s an 89% rim-and-3 rate. For context, Bama posted a 91% rim-and-3 rate last year, which was fifth nationally. Defensively, Bama held UCA to just 14 3PA and 18 shots at the rim (32/62); the 51% rim-and-3 rate allowed would’ve been the lowest in the country last year.

(Below chart courtesy of CBBAnalytics.com)

San Diego State: As I wrote earlier this week, the ‘Tecs are going through a major offensive transformation with more small-ball lineups. It very much appears that they’re going to play through Jaedon LeDee at the five. Albeit with Darrion Trammell sitting out, LeDee posted a 31.7% usage rate in a team-high 25 minutes against Cal St. San Marcos. In typical SDSU fashion, Dutcher’s defense eliminated the rim; CSSM had just 14 attempts in the paint on 54 total shots.

Texas: The ‘Horns were sluggish throughout the 1H against local D2 St. Edwards and did not have Shedrick and Disu. The more important takeaway is the backcourt role allocation. Abmas (37) and Hunter (33) each played huge minutes in this exhibition, which suggests to me that Terry is uncomfortable with his backcourt depth. Hunter looks like he’ll on the ball, tripling up Abamas in assist rate (42% to 15%) and besting him in overall usage rate (27% to 21%). As I have been all offseason, I remain skeptical of Abmas in this type of off-ball role in lieu of playing to his strengths as a ball-screen savant.

Arizona: K.J. Lewis, Jaden Bradley, Caleb Love, and Kylan Boswell split minutes evenly against NM Highlands (each played 22-25 minutes) with Love getting the highest usage (28.8%), followed by Keshad Johnson (24%). Oumar Ballo was a non-factor offensively as the ‘Cats fired up 37 threes on 70 overall FG attempts. This is further confirmation that ‘Zona is going to be more 3PT-reliant this year without Tubelis as a reliable back-to-the-basket scorer and Johnson much more of an inside-outside 4-man. They’re going to be as high-variance/boom-bust as ever.

TCU: Same old, same old. The Frogs posted a mere 23.9% 3PA rate and attempted an absurd 38 shots at the rim as Dixon’s bunch appears poised to yet again be a downhill, rim-seeking machine. Emmanuel Miller and JaKobe Coles (24.5% each) outpaced Jameer Nelson Jr.’s usage (18%), confirming my prior presumption that Nelson is not a direct replacement for Mike Miles as Dixon spreads out the offensive distribution amongst a more balanced group of contributors.

Louisville: You already know what happened here, and it’s not even fun dumping on Payne at this point. I’m merely note that Louisville was outrebounded by 16 (47 to 31) and attempted just nine shots at the rim against a small D2 team.

Colgate: Langel knew he’d have a difficult time replacing Tucker Richardson’s immense across-the-board contributions, but the Canisius game certainly triggered some alarm bells. The Raiders don’t have an obvious third scorer right now behind Braden Smith and Keegan Records, and Canisius exposed Colgate’s soft interior defense at the rim (15/20) while running the Raiders’ shooters off the line. Langel will have it sorted out for conference play, but KP is only projecting a marginal drop-off (#115 to #133) from last year’s team. Possible early-season fade.

Seton Hall: Shaheen absolutely hates traditional big guys. Jalen Bediako and Sadraque NgaNga played just 16 combined minutes with Khadary, Dre Davis, Addae-Wusu and Al-Amir Dawes each playing at least 30 (Dawes played 38). The lack of size looks like a major season-long issue as NJIT’s 4-guard lineup posted a 39% OREB rate (16 total OREBS) and scored 22% of its total points on second-chances. Unless one of the SHU bigs earns Holloway’s trust, it’s going to be a bloodbath on the glass against Big East foes.

I’ll have another box score run-thru later this week.