Opening Night: Pace Notes
For more context on what the hell I’m talking about, refer to this pace primer. Otherwise, nothing in this column will make a lick of sense (and even if you read the primer, it still might not make sense).
Only hitting five games here because there’s 108 goddamn games on the schedule (down from 120+ in prior years; #Blessed) and I don’t have the stamina to do more than this.
Don’t read into anything here as a lean or play. This is all “process talk.”
Air Force at Belmont
This game is the essence of why I “invented” the TIS this offseason. Air Force is widely perceived as a super-snail that grinds pace to a halt. That perception is incorrect. AFA plays slow, but their slow pace has no effect on the opponent. In fact, AFA’s -0.862 SIS (slow impose) grade was bottom 75 nationally and dead-last in the MWC (they were worse at imposing a slow game than freakin’ FRESNO, who was among the fastest teams in the country).
I tend to prefer backing AFA in three scenarios: on the road (they’re the worst ATS home team in the country over the past few years), when catching a bunch of points, and when facing a team that won’t physically or athletically overwhelm them. In theory, this game checks all three boxes, but Belmont can play its transition drag screen game with little or no resistance, and while Joe Scott wants to play a grinder (especially with a roster of neophytes), the Falcs have no ability to do anything about it. This one was short at KP (-12) and has already been whacked by the early opening night market.
Boston College at Florida Atlantic
If this game was played last season, FAU would’ve had a distinct advantage in its ability to speed up BC versus BC’s desire to slow the game down. The arrival of Chase Forte from South Dakota has perhaps changed the calculus, however, with BC now able to push pace after Forte was the catalyst for a top five pace team at South Dakota last year. FAU is a modern, rim-and-3 oriented offense — and BC’s offense under Earl Grant has generally been rather antiquated — but Grant’s roster construction suggests a potential philosophical shift with all-gas-no-brakes Forte surrounded by drivers and shooters.
Wofford at George Mason
It’s axiomatic that a big underdog wants to “shrink the game” by limiting possessions, thereby eroding the overall edge for the fave. But what happens when the big fave is the one who wants to lower the possession count? Well, it can get dicey. Mason is a classic slow imposer, posting the 11th-least favorable “pace environment” nationally last year and is likely set to do so again this year despite a near-wholesale roster flip. Early steam towards on the Patriots, perhaps due to the uncertainty surrounding Wofford’ late-offseason coaching switcheroo (and concomitant questions about player buy-in after the accompanying tumult of Perry’s departure). Personally, I wouldn’t be running to lay 15+ with a snail like GMU, particularly against an opponent who also won’t be pushing pace.
St. Bonaventure vs. Bradley
Near mirror image teams, not just in terms of their TIS breakdown, but in their shared ability to force opposing offenses into contested jump shots and wall off the rim. If you buy into the idea of shaky opening night jump shooting and wobbly legs in the first game or two of the season, this one might be for you, because the overall pace environment here could be downright stifling and neither offense is going to get much at the rim.
Binghamton at Syracuse
Similar to what I said about Air Force, Binghamton “wants” to play slow, finishing 333rd in 2024-25 in offensive APL at a crawling 19.3 seconds. The issue is that nobody really gives a shit what Binghamton wants. If this sounds familiar, well, it should, because Syracuse, like Binghamton, allowed opponents to score quickly at the other end (6th-fastest defensive APL). Syracuse will often self-destruct if forced to work in the half court, but with vastly superior athletes against this sieve-like defensive scheme, they can more or less do whatever they want and force Binghamton to speed things up.
Godspeed.