111 games. Gotta start somewhere. KenPom projected spread in parentheses.
Iona @ Princeton (-14)
Arguably the best "styles make fights" game of the night. Iona's relentless full-court pressure (3rd-highest rate in '23-24) is a wrinkle Princeton never sees in the Ivy. Cornell deploys a similarly-high press rate (6th-highest), but it's much more of a "token" pressure (Iona 25.4% TO rate forced; Cornell 17.7%). On paper, Princeton is well-equipped to handle the Gaels' press with four and sometimes even five ball handlers on the floor, including one of the most sure-handed "centers" in the country, Caden Pierce. My concern for Princeton is if the Iona press takes the Tiger offense out of its free-flowing, NBA-influenced ISO sets, and the Tigers subsequently struggle to initiate offense away from their preferred spots on the floor. This Iona roster underwent a full-blown makeover in the offseason and looks exponentially better-suited to play Tobin Ball with a deep collection of bulldog defenders and a killer bucket-getting wing in James Anderson (imported from Tobin's former school, St. Thomas Aquinas). Offensively, Iona is going to struggle at times this season against defenses who can keep them out of the paint off the dribble, but there's a clear and cognizable footspeed + athleticism edge for the Gaels here. If Princeton keeps this game in the half court and is comfortable executing against the pressure, the Tigers win by 15+. If you're looking for a possible "oh shit" outright upset on Opening Night, this isn't a bad place to look considering the extreme stylistic clash, Princeton’s crawling offensive tempo, and the mystery box Iona roster.
Fordham @ St. John’s (-18)
This is as tough as it gets defensively for Fordham's rim-funnel defense (16th-highest defensive rim rate allowed) against two rim-seeking guards in Deivon Smith and Kadary Richmond, supported and by aggressive, slashing wing in RJ Luis. Fordham also wants to extend up-the-line pressure, which isn't a viable strategy against these guards. Abdou Tsimbila remains an elite rim protector for the Rams, but at 5.6 FC/40, he's at risk of being stapled to the bench with frequent foul trouble. This one closed 13 last year (in an ostensibly “neutral” setting at MSG) and Fordham produced its most catastrophic game of the season offensively. I am generally amenable to backing teams like Fordham catching buckets of points, but it’s difficult to foresee any path to offense here, and I’ll save my St. John’s fades for more pack-line oriented teams who can cut off the rim and force the Johnnies to shoot over the top.
Western Illinois @ San Jose St (-8)
Both teams were defense-oriented in the Portal. SJSU's morphing defensive structure denies ball screens on the perimeter and forces offenses to quickly move the ball to create catch-and-shoots (93rd percentile in C & S frequency allowed). This is certainly not how WIU wants to play. I don't view Will McClendon as the answer to Tim Miles' longstanding quest to find a viable lead guard replacement for Omari Moore. The Spartans want to run P & R at a high rate, but they (again) appear to lack the personnel to effectively do so. WIU is a pure drop defense that will force the ball handler into a scoring role, though replicating last year's top 10 finish in FG % at the rim is a pipe dream following Drew Cisse's departure. Both offenses punt transition opportunities (sub-300 transition frequency) and seek to deny transition defensively. WIU lives in the "extras" and could do enough there to hang around, but the ‘Necks are going to struggle mightily to generate first-shot offense against Miles' shifting defenses. Gross game.
Missouri @ Memphis (-4)
Rematch of last season’s early meeting in Columbia when Memphis’ defensive pressure and incessant switching forced Mizzou into a bevy of contested, off-the-dribble threes from well beyond the arc. Mizzou jumped out 29-15 and led by eight at half, but Penny-less Memphis (suspended first three games) cranked up the second half pressure and won the 2H, 46-22. The situational stuff in the rematch points towards Mizzou ATS-wise, as Penny is traditionally woeful as a large fave (and just as stellar as an underdog), and, so, too, is underdog savant Dennis Gates. Mizzou didn’t do much in the Portal to remedy its dribble creation woes (Tony Perkins? Ques Warrick?), and Penny could simply roll out last year’s switch-heavy defensive game plan here to limit Mizzou’s rim pressure. Both teams want to extend pressure full court, and Penny plucked a major acquisition in Tyrese Hunter, whose POA defense is a game-changer for a Memphis that was often gashed off the bounce last year (a direct consequence of constantly switching). Memphis will again own a massive edge in the paint (47-33 REB last year) and can hammer away on the glass with Dainja, Tyreek Smith, Nick Jourdain, and boomerang transfer Moussa Cisse. Plenty of new faces on both sides, and while I love Gates as a dog (and hate Penny as a fave), the scheme stuff skews heavily towards Memphis with a major shot volume edge. Of note, KP’s number (-4) is well-below the other publicly-available analytical projections.
Tarleton @ SMU (-14)
Oodles of new faces on both sides as both teams are bottom 30 in Torvik’s returning production. The ret prod number is mildly misleading for Tarleton with a semi-rare “boomerang” transfer (2022-23 WAC 2nd-teamer Freddy Hicks) returning to Tarleton after a one-year sabbatical at Ark State. Over the past two seasons, against Q1/Q2 competition (min. 10 games played), only one team nationally is top 10 in TO% rate forced and offensive FT rate. Yep, it’s Billy Clyde’s crew. Why highlight these two stats? Because for a big underdog, forcing TOs and earning FT trips are the two best ways to slow down the game and prevent decisive runs from the superior opponent. Andy Enfield’s USC teams laid more than a few turds in buy games (including last season's opener against Long Beach), and his first SMU team is a full-blown box of chocolates with an eclectic group of random-ass transfers and no clear schematic identity. Tarleton is going to really (really) struggle to score at the rim here, but Gillespie will turn this into a street fight, and no Enfield team has finished in the top 100 in offensive TO rate since 2019, which gives the Texans a reasonable chance of forcing enough SMU miscues to stay within the number. Wish this was slightly higher than 14, though (and maybe it will be).
Wichita St @ Western Kentucky (-1)
Rematch of last season’s memorable meeting at Wichita in which WKU went 0-for-21 from 3PT range (1-for-35 on all jump shots) and lost by 10 despite attempting 27 more FGs than the Shockers. No, I’m still not over it (WKU +9 bag holder). While Steve Lutz is gone from WKU, much remains the same from last year's matchup as the ‘Tops promoted from within and both teams return substantial production from last season. These are two of the 20 most experienced teams nationally. New WKU coach Hank Plona will likely stick with Lutz’s base schemes, but he could also revert to whatever he was running at Indian River (he brought lead guard and 1st-Team CUSA recipient Don McHenry with him from Indian River to WKU last year). Lutz is/was an ardent believer in sending “two to the ball” against ball screens, and to wit, the ‘Tops blitzed the hell out of Wichita’s high-volume P & R actions last year and forced a 25% TO rate. The Shox no longer have their steadiest ballhandler and shot maker (Colby Rogers -- Memphis) but added a reasonable on-ball replacement with steady UGA transfer Justin Hill along with some needed scoring punch on the wing with explosive Saint Peter's transfer Corey Washington. I continue to be skeptical of Paul Mills' roster construction and his devotion to playing three-guard lineups where all of the guards do the same thing (tons of dribble creation out of P & R) and now without a killer shot maker (Rogers). Max Abmas likewise ain't walking through that door. Doubt I’ll be involved here.
North Dakota @ Colorado St. (-16)
This is as difficult as it gets schematically for the North Dakota defense, which was ripped to shreds by Iowa in last season's opener. I note this because the Hawkeyes share ample offensive DNA with CSU -- albeit a much faster version of what Medved runs in Fort Collins. Playing a season opener at high altitude is foreboding, as early-season conditioning is often lacking and UND will likely be lost in the sauce attempting to defend Medved's deep playbook. Sather is no stranger to watching his best players get poached (happens seemingly every season) but Omot (Cal) and Ihenacho (Washington) were rare athletes in the Summit — particularly Omot. The Hawks’ offense was 8th in rim-and-3 rate last year (largely driven by Omot's rim pressure) and excelled at opening up the floor for drivers, but CSU projects to be a mostly drop-oriented defense this season and was top 10 last season (per SQ) in rim-and-3 efficiency allowed defensively. Barring something unforeseen, the Rams can stay in their base defensive structure here with little fear. Despite breaking in a handful of new pieces in the first game of the post-Isaiah Stevens Era (including his near-direct replacement, Bown Born), I have some moderate interest in CSU at current projections.
Manhattan @ Maryland (-24)
Love John Gallagher. The dude built up Hartford from the proverbial ashes, only to watch in horror as UHart’s feckless administrators took a blowtorch to the program. If there's a such thing as "year sub-zero," he went through it last year in his debut at Manhattan. The Jaspers play hard as hell and are going to bite some teams in MAAC play...but it's a lost cause here in the opener. While I'm still down on Maryland relative to the (projected) market, the Terps can run up massive margins here on the glass and at the FT line. Gallagher will pack his defense in like stow-aways on a fleeing ship to maximize his chances against Maryland's wayward jump shooting, but the Terps could rebound 40% or more of their misses and can attack the rim at-will given Manhattan's absence of paint protection. It's well-established that the best chance for overmatched underdogs to stick close in games is to get hot from three, but Maryland's drop coverage funnels everything into the paint, and the Terps were +17.0 in 3PT attempt rate (not accuracy) in their seven Q4 games last year (40.8 to 23.8). This number looks essentially spot-on but will likely boil down to how soon Willard opts to pull back on his extended pressure.
UNC Asheville @ Alabama (-24)
Might as well rip the post-Pember Era band-aid off as quickly as possible, right? Even with Pember the Unicorn dominating usage over the previous three seasons, UNCA wasn't able to "step up" in class, grading out 303rd in Torvik's efficiency rankings when sorting for Q1 opponents. Morrell's aggressive ball screen coverages don't work against high-major guards, and the Bulldogs have been pounded on the glass (-16.2 REB rate per 100 possessions) in these matchups. Not being able to contain the dribble is, of course, instant death against Alabama's lightning-fast ball movement, particularly at Coleman Coliseum, where the Tide routinely shred even the most structurally-sound defenses. Sears and Holloway should run wild here. At the other end, Morrell structured his offense around Pember's unique talents (tons of DHOs, ISO clear-outs, post-ups, etc) but will likely return to his P & R-centric roots. In 2020-21 - the year prior to Pember's arrival -- UNCA ranked in the 90th percentile in P & R rate, and with non-scorers in the frontcourt and transfer guards Jordan Marsh (App State) and Justin Wright (LMU) joining the squad, UNCA should be much more perimeter-driven than recent years. Bama's passive ball screen coverage (which should be even more drop-oriented with Omoruyi as the 5-man) can be susceptible to elite dribble creators, but I'm doubtful that UNCA's new backcourt has the pop to exploit this deficiency. Tide should roll. And I mean really roll.
Towson @ Saint Mary’s (-13)
Towson already-rough offense was utterly neutered in its eight games against Q1/Q2 competition last year, finishing 275th in adjO and 289th in 2PT FG%, while the defense held up quite well (101st adjD and 46th in 2PT D%). Pat Skerry returns nearly his entire rotation but lost his only post-up threat, Charles Thompson, who finished with twice as many post touches (123 to 61) as the next guy and seemingly did not replace him through the Portal. Without some semblance of a post-up option, the Tigers are going to be stuck running ball screen after ball screen and attacking the offensive glass. As they almost always are, Towson was the most reliant team nationally last year in second-chances (9.4% of total points scored from OREBS) but SMC is elite in limiting those opportunities.. How does Towson crack 50 here? With Thompson gone, I expect a small drop-off in rim defense, and Saint Mary’s might look quite clunky offensive early in the season as Bennett attempts to replace the departed shot-making of Mahaney and Ducas. Good late-night game for too-online CBB hardos who love ugly basketball while sneering down upon the glory boys and casuals watching Baylor/Zaga.