Random Notes 11/27
At last, the wretched annual scourge known as “Feast Week” is behind us. I realize many of you sick fucks crave the endless stream of day-ball action, but like most things, I hate it. It completely nukes my daily process and eliminates a significant percentage of actionable games because I have no interest in trying to discern motivation for teams playing their third of three MTE games in some random town (Buies Creek, NC? Farmville, VA?). Anyway, it’s over…until next year, when I’ll bitch about it anew.
Speaking of things that are over…totals. From Thanksgiving (Thursday) through the end of Sunday night, 58% of overs cashed (106-77). The current season-long ledger is 52.4% to the over (roughly 1000-game sample) and 53% since January 1.
Three weeks into the season, I’m now starting to bet some regression spots. ShotQuality’s data is tremendously helpful in this pursuit, as it will lead you to edges that you wouldn’t otherwise know existed. For example, Harvard was among the most eye-popping negative regression candidates in the sport leading into its matchup yesterday at Indiana — mostly due to alarming deficiencies on the defensive end (all five defensive categories have “up” arrows in the below screenshot, which does not include the Indiana game). While the Crimson notched a solid 1.01 PPP allowed through its first five D1 games, the SQ data indicated that Harvard’s defense was dogshit and long overdue to be exposed (1.20 PPP is abysmal). Amazingly, even Indiana’s offense was able to exploit it, but my undying love for Tommy Amaker as an underdog myopically kept me from pulling the trigger on an IU bet:
A great starting point in seeking out regression candidates — positive or negative — is to sort SQ by “luck.” Pictured in the below chart were the six “luckiest” teams entering Sunday. Of course, some readers might be apoplectic at Miami’s inclusion on this ignominious list. After all, the ‘Canes just tore through UGA and KState at Baha Mar and appear primed to crack all sorts of top 10 journo lists tomorrow ahead of a massive trip to Rupp Arena this week. Alas, The U’s impressive first three weeks was fueled by thermonuclear three-point shooting and extreme defensive shooting luck —opponents are shooting 26% from three and 28% in the mid-range. Both of those numbers will steadily climb over time…but it won’t necessarily happen on Wednesday in Lexington. As the old adage goes, “I can tell you that regression will happen; just don’t ask me when it will happen.”
Another way to analyze a team’s relative standing in the market is is to compare the SQ luck rating with the team’s relative rise or fall in KenPom since the start of the season. To do this, go to KP’s “FanMatch” archive and edit the URL to 11-06-23. You will then have a ready-made, sortable list of each’s team’s gains or losses since opening day. This page is as close as we might ever get to a real-time “stock market” for college basketball teams. Below are SQ ratings for KP’s ten most significant risers thus far. As you can see, most of the big gainers are legitimate — with the exception of aforementioned Harvard, who is still languishing in the low 200’s, per SQ:
Ur a beast