Previewing Opening Night: Part 2
Previously: Part 1
https://dictatethepace.substack.com/p/previewing-opening-night-part-1
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Cincinnati (-32)
Few low-majors had a worse offseason than Pine Bluff. Solomon Bozeman's offense is unique in the SWAC in that he recruits players who can shoot the round orange ball into the cylinder above the net. His squad last season was teeming with such players, and in Bozeman's hyper-tempo scheme, UAPB was a bona fide offensive juggernaut (by SWAC-ian standards). For context, UAPB had four players with 80th percentile or better ShotQuality "shot making" grades, which is absolutely unheard of for a SWAC squad. Of course, the defense was beyond catrastrophic (bottom three nationally) and last year's quartet of shot-makers departed in the offseason. In its five Q1/Q2 games last year (all on the road against high-majors), UAPB's offense performed admirably (#123 in adjO in those five games) and equally abysmally on the defensive end (#357 adjD). Without last year's offensive firepower, they're going to be tombstoned by physical high-majors, particularly if Bozeman maintains last year's blistering tempo. Cincy certainly checks the boxes as a bad team smasher thanks to a deep roster that can gradually extend the lead well into the second half. In nine Q4 games last year, the Bearcats won the rebounding margin battle by astounding margins (43% OREB; 19% DREB). At projected numbers, I don't know if I'll be on Cincy, but it's likely the one side I could play here.
Akron @ Arkansas St. (-4)
Mentally, I catalog John Groce as a great "rah-rah" coach whose physical and grizzled teams step up in class against difficult competition. Nope. Wrong. Not at all. Over the past two seasons, when catching multiple possessions as underdogs (closing +4 or higher), the Zips went 0-7-1 ATS -- and most of those games were non-competitive despite reasonable closing lines. Akron harkens a new era following the departure of walk-on-turned-program-legend Enrique Freeman, who was among the five most valuable bigs nationally last year. Gone, too, is his sidekick at the 4 spot, Ali Ali, along with shot-making wing Greg Tribble and a few other low-usage rotation guys. Groce reeled in a stellar Portal class, but with no obvious alpha on the roster, he might need time to establish a pecking order. I like their chances to round into form when MAC play begins; I'm less bullish early in the year. It's a difficult opener in Jonesboro, where Bryan Hodson's Oats-ian rim-and-3 machine added another strong wing scorer in Kobe Julien to pressure the rim and spot up on the perimeter. The mismatch at the 4/5 is a serious issue for Akron, and if Groce opts to play his returning guards over the newbies, Akron likewise will be super-small in the backcourt. Structurally, I would've called this a very difficult matchup for Ark State's offense last year given Freeman's incredible defensive "range" and ability to switch onto guards, but without him, the Zips' defense is going to fall off substantially. Offensively, Akron likely has enough off-the-dribble firepower to cause some issues for Ark State's deep drop coverage, which frequently struggled in rotation last season and failed to guard the ball whatsoever (sub-300th in dribble defense). If this number opens around the KP projection (Ark State -4), the Red Wolves will be steamed. Really cool Opening Night game and likely the best matchup of this very odd Sun Belt/MAC arrangement.
North Alabama @ Air Force (-3)
Only the second trip to altitude in UNA's seven-year D1 history. Air Force's shifting matchup zone and frequent switching effectively ices P & R but leaves its questionable defenders isolated off-the-dribble and in one v. one matchups on the block. The latter isn't an issue against post-devoid UNA, but the former is, with boomerang transfer Daniel Ortiz rejoining Jacari Lane to give Tony Pujol a small-but-dynamic shot creating duo in the backcourt. I'm not comparing the talent, of course, but UNA's backcourt stylistically resembles New Mexico, who thrice torched AFA's slow-footed perimeter last season (1.22, 1.20, and 1.17 PPP). Air Force theoretically has an early-season advantage over some of its opponents due to roster continuity (no Portal additions) and a unique offensive style, but UNA's sees quite a few modified Princeton elements in the Atlantic Sun. There’s a school of thought that altitude teams have an edge earlier in the season when conditioning across the sport isn’t yet at mid-season form, but the Falcons dropped last year’s season opener at home against a messy Portland State team. Plenty of tug-and-pull in both directions here. Tough cap.
Western Michigan @ Coastal Carolina (-5)
You won’t find a more drastic defensive scheme shift in this season's coaching cycle than Justin Gray transitioning Coastal away from Cliff Ellis’ morphing matchup zones to perhaps the strictest/purest deep drop coverage in the country. Gray only brought one WCU player with him to Myrtle Beach (minor role guy Colin Granger), and while I like this hire long-term for the ‘Chants, it’s a true “year zero” situation. Gray’s first WCU team was abysmal (finished 296th) and while the talent here is (marginally) superior to that squad, it’s still an uphill climb as he searches for a drop coverage anchor and tries to replicate last year’s incendiary Woolbright/Russ Jones backcourt. Presumptive Coastal usage monster Marcus Watson (Towson) was recently ruled out for the season. Meanwhile, Dwayne Stephens couldn’t get WMU out of the sub-300 ranks in his first two years and looks unlikely do so this year, either, after his two best players defected to the A10 (Richmond and URI). WMU’s post-centric offense (led by 7-footer Javonte Brown) had few redeeming qualifies but did lead the MAC in rebounding margin…but the entire frontcourt is gone with underwhelming back-fills replacing it. Upside case for WMU in this game is that Coastal's extremely passive coverage (#360/363 in the "aggression index") won't exploit WMU's shoddy ball handling. This whole game is a mess.
Morehead St. @ Louisville (-17)
One of Pat Kelsey's hallmarks at Charleston was his ability to make easy work of Q4 teams. In 2022-23 and 2023-24, CoC went 30-0 SU against Q4 opponents, posting top 100 (#95) adjEM metrics in those games. The formula was quite simple: win the math battle. The Cougs dominated shot volume (TO + REB + FTA margin) and almost always ran up margins in 3PT attempt rate (49.4% to 33.1%), thereby maximizing their advantages over these inferior opponents. It helped that they played a top 25 tempo, too. Very little should change at Louisville. Kelsey again has a deep roster with appealing positional versatility to mix-and-match lineups. Most full-scale roster flips are fraught with early-season risk because the teams often lack chemistry, but Kelsey brought with him from CoC two key rotation guys (Reyne Smith and James Scott) to ease the transition. Also, this roster is old. Old like nursing home old. I have no concerns about a low floor (the ceiling is the bigger question mark when they step up against Q1 opponents). Morehead (sort of) promoted internally, albeit with a first-time head coach. Assuming he mostly retains Spradlin's schemes, I don't see this team being capable of stepping up in a Q1 game. The Eagles were wiped off the floor last year against Bama, Purdue and Penn State before nearly winning at Indiana by more than doubling up IU's three-point attempts (34 to 16). Kelsey won't allow that to happen.
Sacred Heart @ Temple (-15)
Lynn Greer's 9-game suspension throws a wrench into Temple's early-season schedule as Adam Fisher bizarrely forgot to recruit a back-up point guard for this roster. Greer is an aggressive, rim-pressuing guard whose presence (theoretically) allows Jamal Mashburn Jr. to play strictly off-the-ball as a bucket-getter rather than a shot creator. There also aren't any forwards/bigs on the roster through whom Fisher can play. This is a high-volume P & R-system reliant upon dribble creation (already a weakness last year when dribble creation duties fell to Hysier Miller and...Hysier Miller). It's going to be tough sledding offensively for awhile as the Greer domino effect pushes the remainer of the backcourt into sub-optimal roles. Sacred Heart lost substantial production from last year but looks mildly underrated with the unsung return of boomerang transfer Bryce Johnson (1.2 PRPG! in 2023-24) and former NEC Freshman of the Year Anquan Hill (FDU). Of note, Temple was underwhelming in its 14 Q4 games last year, finishing 9-5 overall and 206th in adj EM (highlighted by a negative 2PT FG% differential against the Q4 opponents).
Texas A & M @ UCF (+3)
Johnny Dawkins has produced consecutive top 40 adjD finishes (21st last year), including a top 10 rim FG% D with top 10 Hakeem/Havoc rating (block % + steal %). What’s he doing for an encore? Throwing it all in the trash. Gone is the elite rim protection of the past two seasons — unless mountainous re-class freshman Moustapha Thiam is significantly ahead of schedule. More likely, the rim defense will be “anchored” by La Salle transfer Rokas Jocius, whose vertical is in-line with mine (I work in an office). Protecting the rim is vitally important against TAMU’s rim pressure, and UCF’s perimeter defense — which was already dubious last year even with departed on-ball maven Shemarri Allen — now lacks the rim protection behind it to compensate. Equally importantly, UCF's top projected player by BPR, Jaylin Sellers, went down in an exhibition game with a nasty injury and is presumably unavailable for the foreseeable future. Defensively, Buzz’s switching defensive structure forces one of the highest ISO rates in the country and was #1 in rate of “short shot clock” possessions (4 seconds or less) forced last season, per Synergy. Who the hell knows what UCF will get from Dior Johnson, but I’ll assume for now the backcourt is (primarily) Jordan Ivy-Curry and Darius Johnson, the former of whom adds a much-needed shot making punch off the dribble. Perhaps this is a different story later in the season, but UCF is facing an uphill climb attempting to integrate a slew of new and volatile pieces into its rotation while moving away from the winning formula of the past two seasons.
Portland St. @ Washington St. (-10)
Ample familiarity between new WSU coach David Riley and Portland State as Riley faced PSU boss Jase Coburn six times in the past three seasons as Big Sky foes. Riley (EWU) went 6-0 both SU and ATS in those meetings, albeit never as more than a 7-point favorite. Five of the six games closed 151 or higher with four flying over the closing total. RIley always has skilled rosters and brought with him four rotation players from EWU, where his "positionless" offenses routinely cooked Portland State's pressure schemes. It's immensely difficult for PSU to effectively deploy its run-and-jump pressure against Riley's offenses as the floor is spread with ball handlers and Riley can initiate offense away from the trap spots. Last year, PSU's frenetic pressure induced EWU into TO rates of 20.8% and 25.6%, but the Eagles drilled 24-of-49 threes against the scrambling PSU defense. As always, PSU turned over its roster in the offseason and Coburn is generally a slow starter as he tries to coalesce his brand-new rosters (which are often heavy on JuCos and non-D1s) prior to Big Sky play. Prep-wise, this is seamless as it gets for Riley in his WSU debut against a familiar opponent and favorable defensive scheme.